Detection power, estimation efficiency, and predictability in event-related fMRI.

Experimental designs for event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging can be characterized by both their detection power, a measure of the ability to detect an activation, and their estimation efficiency, a measure of the ability to estimate the shape of the hemodynamic response. Randomized designs offer maximum estimation efficiency but poor detection power, while block designs offer good detection power at the cost of minimum estimation efficiency. Periodic single-trial designs are poor by both criteria. We present here a theoretical model of the relation between estimation efficiency and detection power and show that the observed trade-off between efficiency and power is fundamental. Using the model, we explore the properties of semirandom designs that offer intermediate trade-offs between efficiency and power. These designs can simultaneously achieve the estimation efficiency of randomized designs and the detection power of block designs at the cost of increasing the length of an experiment by less than a factor of 2. Experimental designs can also be characterized by their predictability, a measure of the ability to circumvent confounds such as habituation and anticipation. We examine the relation between detection power, estimation efficiency, and predictability and show that small increases in predictability can offer significant gains in detection power with only a minor decrease in estimation efficiency.